The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.3%, in line with the estimates of LSEG economists. The payroll figures for the past two months were amended, with February reduced by 23,000 from a loss of 133,000 to a decrease of 156,000. March’s report was revised up by 7,000 from a gain of 178,000 to 185,000.
Over the two months, the jobs created were 16,000 fewer than initially estimated.
The private sector added 123,000 jobs in April, far above the LSEG poll’s forecast of 75,000. The 186,000 jobs increase in March was also revised up to 190,000 jobs.
Government payrolls lost 8,000 positions in April. The federal government’s workforce shed 9,000 jobs during the month, somewhat offset by an increase of 1,000 jobs in state government. Local government employment showed little change for the month.
Economists polled by LSEG had forecast an increase of 5,000 jobs, while the manufacturing sector lost 2,000 positions in April.
The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, exceeding expectations and rebounding from a revised decline of 133,000 in February that was attributed in part to a large healthcare strike.
Economists note that the headline figure may not fully capture the strength of the report. The break-even rate of job growth—the number of jobs needed each month to keep the unemployment rate stable—has declined to near zero, according to analyses from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
A framework updated March 31 by Dallas Fed economists Anton Cheremukhin, Daniel Wilson, and Xiaoqing Zhou attributes much of the decline to shifts in immigration patterns. Their analysis found that net unauthorized immigration averaged a monthly decrease of about 55,000 in the second half of 2025, totaling roughly a 548,000 decline for the year—exceeding earlier projections by the Congressional Budget Office, Breitbart News reported.
As a result, the break-even rate of employment growth fell to around 10,000 jobs per month by mid-2025 and dropped below zero later in the year, averaging approximately negative 3,000 per month between August and December.
A recent analysis by staff economists at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors reached similar conclusions using a separate framework, estimating that weak population growth and declining labor force participation could reduce the number of jobs needed to stabilize the unemployment rate to fewer than 10,000 per month in 2026. The economists described the trend as “unprecedented in recent history,” lower than at any point in the past 65 years, including during the pandemic, Breitbart added, citing the reports.
The analysis also suggested that the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be overestimating population growth for 2026. Current projections from the U.S. Census Bureau assume net immigration will increase the population by about 320,000 this year. However, the Brookings Institution estimates net immigration could range from a decline of 925,000 to a gain of 185,000.
Using the midpoint of that range would imply population growth below 0.2 percent, suggesting that even near-zero estimates for job growth needed to maintain stable unemployment could be overstated.
Economists noted that under these conditions, monthly payroll changes could fluctuate more widely, with both gains and losses possible even if the broader economy remains stable, Breitbart said.
“The establishment survey tells a strong story. Private payrolls expanded by 186,000 workers. Healthcare bounced back with 76,000 workers returning to payrolls as the strike ended. Construction added 26,000 workers. Manufacturing gained 15,000, all in durables,” the outlet’s report continued.
“The diffusion index jumped to 56.8 from 49.2, indicating that payroll gains broadened well beyond the healthcare rebound. Federal government payrolls continued to decline, falling by 18,000, bringing the total reduction since the October 2024 peak to 355,000 or 11.8 percent. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent,” it added.
Breitbart concluded: “Wages rose 0.2 percent on the month and 3.5 percent over the year, continuing to beat inflation. But average weekly earnings actually ticked down because the average workweek fell from 34.3 to 34.2 hours — firms are adding workers to payrolls but trimming hours, the signature of an employer class that faces a tight labor supply but remains cautious about demand.”
