The poll surveyed 952 Republicans and 225 independents who lean Republican from across the country, asking them to choose from 15 well-known conservative politicians or to select “someone else” or “not sure.” Vance received 36 percent of the vote, nearly twice as much as Donald Trump Jr., who came in second with 19 percent. Another 14 percent said they were not sure, bringing the total to 70 percent of all respondents.
Both Vance and Trump Jr. saw some decline in support since a similar October poll. Rubio, however, gained ground. He received 9 percent overall but ranked as the third choice and performed strongly among independent voters.
The results come as President Trump asked a group of donors at his Mar-a-Lago estate for their thoughts about Vance and Rubio. “What do you think of JD Vance and Marco Rubio?” Trump asked, according to The Wall Street Journal. Sources said donors applauded more loudly for Rubio than for Vance. The informal poll occurred one day after Trump placed Rubio prominently in the administration’s public posture.
During a press conference in Florida, Trump noted that Vance had been “less enthusiastic” about going to war with Iran. He described differences in how the two men approach politics and diplomacy. “He gets a little bit tough on occasion; we gotta slow him down on occasion,” Trump said about Vance. He contrasted that with Rubio’s style, saying, “Then we have the opposite extreme. Marco does it with a velvet glove. But it’s a kill.”
A separate survey conducted by the Daily Mail and JL Partners between March 2 and March 3 asked voters which figures have the most influence in Trump’s inner circle. Vance led with 19 percent, followed by Rubio at 12 percent. Stephen Miller and Donald Trump Jr. were tied for third. The poll surveyed 1,020 registered voters and had a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
The same survey found Rubio’s approval rating had declined slightly from 40 percent in February to 36 percent. Thirty-four percent disapproved, and 17 percent were neutral, while 14 percent were unsure.
Both Vance and Rubio have rejected suggestions of rivalry. Vance addressed the issue during a February interview with Fox News, saying, “Marco is my closest friend in the administration. I think it’s so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn’t any conflict.” Rubio told Vanity Fair last year that if Vance runs for president in 2028, he would support him. “If he runs for president in 2028, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio said.
The poll results reflect ongoing discussions within the Republican Party about the post-Trump landscape. Vance’s lead among Republicans and right-leaning independents underscores his position as a leading figure in the party. Rubio’s gains, particularly among independents, suggest broadening appeal in certain voter segments. The informal donor reaction at Mar-a-Lago highlights the importance of personal relationships and public posture in shaping perceptions within Republican circles.
The developments occur as the party looks ahead to future national elections. Analysts note that early polling in primary fields can shift significantly over time, particularly as candidates define their platforms and respond to evolving national issues. Both Vance and Rubio continue to play prominent roles in the Trump administration, with Vance as vice president and Rubio as secretary of state.
The survey data and Trump’s comments provide a snapshot of current dynamics within the Republican coalition. While Vance maintains a clear lead in the primary preference poll, Rubio’s movement and the donor reaction indicate he remains a significant figure. The mutual expressions of support between Vance and Rubio suggest party unity remains a priority as Republicans prepare for the next electoral cycle.
Further polling and campaign developments are expected in the coming months as the party evaluates potential candidates and strategies for 2028 and beyond. The focus remains on maintaining momentum from recent electoral successes while addressing key policy priorities.
